columbia basin climate

Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). After fitting three-parameter generalized extreme value probability distributions to the annual peak flow data, the daily 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (under natural flow conditions) are estimated for both historical and future periods. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. These results point to extensive, landscape-scale transformations in hydrologic behaviour associated with climate change. Hamlet, A. F., Carrasco, P., Deems, J., Elsner, M. M., Kamstra, T., Lee, C., Lee, S-Y, Mauger, G., Salathe, E. P., Tohver, I., & Binder, L. W. (2010a). Fig. The CBCCSP (and extensions over the west) has greatly reduced the costs of these types of studies by supplying (at essentially no cost) a wide range of high-quality hydrologic scenarios as a foundation for further work. 8) experience little change in the shape of the monthly hydrograph because there is only occasional low-elevation snow in mid-winter in the twentieth century base case; therefore, there is relatively little sensitivity of monthly runoff timing to warming. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because . For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Calibration of the VIC model was carried out using an automated calibration tool called MOCOM-UA developed by the Land Surface Hydrology group at the UW, following the approach described by Yapo, Gupta, and Sorooshian (Citation1998). These spatial variations in the change in AET are broadly reflective of the dominant drivers of AET in each case. Differences in the impacts in the US and Canadian portions of the basin are striking, confirming results reported in two previous studies (Hamlet, Citation2003; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). Small black dots indicate streamflow sites where naturalized flows were not available. 9 Left panel: Historical estimates of summer (JJA) potential evapotranspiration (PET) (based on PET3, see Table 2) (upper right) compared with percentage changes in PET for two emissions scenarios and three future time periods from the CD scenarios. The state of Oregon, for example, is classified as about 75% mixed-rain-and-snow for the twentieth century climate. Click the download link to get the current station data. Dave Rodenhuis, Markus Schnorbus, Arelia Werner, and Katrina Bennett at PCIC at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, also provided in-kind support and funding for collaborative research which contributed materially to this project. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. Since 2014, the RDI has engaged in applied research related to community climate adaptation. It drains roughly 260,000 square miles and travels more than 1,240 miles from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to its confluence with the Pacific Ocean. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). Gridded datasets provide full spatial coverage (i.e., all grid cells in the model domain) at monthly time scales, of the key hydroclimatic variables listed in Table 2. Although results could potentially vary in different areas of the model domain, these results support the hypothesis that only modest improvements in validation statistics would result from individual calibration of additional streamflow sites within each sub-basin. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Changes in snowpack are a key driver of hydrologic impacts in the PNW (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). A number of sub-basins are nested within each other, as shown in the right panel along with their relative sizes. 5 Examples of summary plots for monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) (mm) (averaged over the upstream basin area) and raw streamflow not adjusted for bias (cubic metres per second) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon. Although this project consists of an abbreviated set of scenarios and products using three scenarios (high, medium, and low impact) for one downscaling method, the CBCCSP played an important role in providing an established set of methods for developing historical driving datasets and implementing and running the hydrologic models. The highest value of baseflow is Ds max (in millimetres of runoff per time step) for a saturated soil layer; Ws represents the soil moisture threshold below which the baseflow curve is linear; and Ds is the baseflow value (in millimetres) at this breakpoint. Fig. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. Thus, stakeholders can select different products, using different downscaling approaches that are appropriate to their needs. This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. The Columbia Basin Climate Source is your one-stop destination for information about climate change, impacts, and action in this region. Note the relative insensitivity of SWE to warming in the coldest, and most heavily snowmelt-dominant, areas in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia in comparison with the rest of the domain. Columbia Basin Dive Rescue has been serving the community for almost 50 years. These extended meteorological data have proved particularly useful in supporting ecological studies (e.g., Littell et al., Citation2010). Hi/Low, RealFeel, precip, radar, & everything you need to be ready for the day, commute, and . A number of high-visibility studies have made use of the CBCCSP database to date, a few of which are summarized below. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling, Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 C (5.0 C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Register to receive personalised research and resources by email. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the Northwest U.S. from 1980 - 2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. As noted above, such errors are commonly encountered at relatively small spatial scales, particularly when meteorological stations are sparse, and often cannot be resolved using conventional hydrologic model calibration strategies. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). 2 Eleven sub-basins in the CRB used for large scale calibration (left panel). Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page The CBCCSP was developed to address these diverse needs. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. 11 Changes in 7Q10 for 297 river locations expressed as a ratio of 7Q10 for the future period to 7Q10 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods, by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). Figure 1. Post-processing of the primary VIC model output (see Table 2) was carried out to produce a number of specific products discussed in the following sections. For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. Climate Adaptation. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. The RMJOC is specifically dedicated to reviewing the practices, procedures, and processes of each agency to identify changes that could improve the overall efficiency of the operation and management of the Federal Columbia River Power System projects. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Although these ongoing research and outreach efforts had already laid an extensive foundation in support of pilot climate services in the PNW, starting in 20062007 it was realized that a much more comprehensive and focused effort to provide hydrologic climate change scenarios was needed if stakeholders and water professionals in the region were to take the next steps in preparing for climate change. The top two panels show the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (left) and R 2 (right) for the calibration period, while the two lower panels show NSE (left) and R 2 (right) for the validation period. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. Inset numbers at the upper left in the future projections are the percentage changes in 1 April SWE averaged over each grid cell in the entire domain. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Mostly cloudy, with a high . The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. Right panel: Same data shown as a scatter plot of the average ratio of Q100 for the 2040s A1B scenarios to Q100 for the historical period versus historical basin-average mid-winter (DJF) temperature in each case. The dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. Yakima River Basin Study Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below: If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). The primary activities and objectives of the RMJOC studies are described in the Executive Summary of the project report (US Department of the Interior, Citation2012): The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) collaborated to adopt climate change and hydrology datasets for their longer-term planning activities in the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (CSRB). Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). Fig. The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. %%EOF However, some areas west of the Cascade Range and in the northern Rockies show increasing AET. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. The magnitude of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10 are expected to shift markedly in some basins in response to cool season warming, increasing cool season precipitation, and warmer, drier summers. Isaak DJ et al. Note that unlike the raw VIC flux files discussed above (Table 2), imperial units are used for these products on the study website (cubic feet per second, inches, degrees Fahrenheit). Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. Bias adjustment was also used in preparing the specific reservoir modelling support products discussed below. Climatic Change 113:499-524. This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. 0 Figure 8 shows hydrographs from selected basins with different hydrologic classifications (snowmelt-dominant, mixed-rain-and-snow, and rain-dominant) in the United States and Canada. Casola, J. H., Kay, J. E., Snover, A. K., Norheim, R. A., Binder, L. C. W., & the Climate Impacts Group. Crook, A. G. (1993). Lvapotranspiration potentielle augmente dans la majeure partie de la rgion du Pacifique et du NordOuest en t cause des tempratures plus leves; cependant, lvaporation relle est rduite dans presque tous les secteurs du domaine parce que lvapotranspiration est principalement limite par l'eau en t et les prcipitations estivales diminuent dans les simulations.

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